Federal Government Proposes 77% Cut to Arizona Colorado River Water Supply Amid Record-Dry Winter

By Arizona State News

A federal proposal to slash Arizona's Colorado River water allocation by more than 77 percent has sent shockwaves through the state's water management community, universities, and businesses that rely on the river for critical operations.

The proposed cuts stem from a combination of factors: a record-dry winter that left the Rocky Mountains with record-low snowpack, and a failed negotiation process among the seven Colorado River states. Without a new agreement, the U.S. Department of the Interior must make unilateral decisions on how to allocate the dwindling water supply.

Snowpack Crisis

About 85 percent of the Colorado River originates as mountain snow, largely in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. But the winter of 2026 brought nothing but heat and drought.

Scientists described the conditions as "dismal," "depressing" and "seriously dry" during a federal briefing on Western drought conditions. The Natural Resources Conservation Service reported that 2026 snow totals across the Upper Colorado River Basin are far lower than any previous minimum.

High temperatures caused already-meager snow to melt earlier than normal, accelerating snowmelt in March and reducing inflows to Lake Powell. The federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Center now projects only 22 percent of normal runoff from April through July, one of the lowest totals since Glen Canyon Dam was constructed in the 1960s.

The forecast at the beginning of April is even more dire than it was before, said Nels Bjarke, a research scientist with the Western Water Assessment. There is a possibility that we could experience the driest or historical low flows on record.

The 77 Percent Cut

The Draft Environmental Impact Statement released by the Bureau of Reclamation proposes a devastating reduction in Arizona's water allocation under the Central Arizona Project, a 336-mile canal system that delivers Colorado River water to central and southern Arizona.

The proposal would cut Arizona's allocation by 77.4 percent, while proposing a 16.67 percent cut for Mexico and a 5.93 percent decrease for Nevada. The other five states in the Colorado River Basin—California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming—would not face reductions.

The cuts target Arizona's "junior priority" status among the seven states. Since 1922, the principle of "first in time, first in line" has governed Colorado River water rights, prioritizing states with older irrigation systems. Arizona's water rights date from 1938, making it one of the first to face reductions when negotiations fail.

The proposed cut stems from Arizona's junior priority status among the seven states, meaning it is one of the first to face reductions in water supply negotiations, according to the Tucson Spotlight. The principle of first in time, first in line has governed Colorado River water rights since 1922.

Economic and National Security Implications

The proposal threatens Arizona's economy in multiple sectors. The letter from CAP and state water managers to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum highlights the critical role Colorado River water plays in supporting 6 million Arizonans, including:

• A thriving advanced microchip manufacturing industry
• Critical mineral production
• Agricultural operations
• Tribal communities
• Energy generation

The (Draft Environmental Impact Statement) alternatives threaten to tear apart a generation of careful water management and topple the architecture supporting Arizona's economy which is home to the heart of the American semi-conductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure industries, the letter stated.

Governor Katie Hobbs has already urged federal leaders to consider the national security and economic risks of reducing the state's allocation. Semiconductor manufacturers like Intel depend on reliable water supplies to maintain competitive advantages over other states and nations.

Business and Government Response

Arizona's business leaders and government officials are pushing back against the proposal while also working to conserve water and find alternative solutions.

Greater Phoenix Leadership President Neil Giuliano noted that Arizona's business community has long been accustomed to water conservation as desert dwellers. The state has joined the Coalition for Protecting Arizona's Lifeline, an advocacy initiative that began with a bipartisan group of mayors and has since expanded to include business organizations, local water companies and tribal nations.

Intel Senior Technologist Kelly Osborne said the company has decreased freshwater withdrawal by 30 percent since 2020 while bringing two new semiconductor factories online. The company invests in water treatment and reclamation facilities, and operates with a net positive water goal.

Not only do we reduce and reuse water, but we also restore more water than we consume, Osborne said. Intel has a net positive goal for water, so water that we actually lose to evaporation, we work with nonprofits within our watersheds to go then restore water to the river.

Central Arizona Project General Manager Brenda Burman, in an exchange with Interior Secretary Burgum, emphasized the devastating nature of the proposal for the state's water infrastructure.

The Race to Adapt

While state and federal officials negotiate, local institutions are already adapting to reduce their dependence on Colorado River water.

The University of Arizona has dramatically reduced its water usage through sustainable practices. Total water usage fluctuated over time but dropped significantly between 2018 and 2023, according to UA data. The university closed the UA Mall for a stormwater project in 2022, contributing to a notable drop in water usage that year.

UA spokesman Mitch Zak said the school has long been a leader in sustainable irrigation practices, including purchasing smart irrigation controllers decades ago that detect ambient moisture and apply water only when needed.

The University of Arizona is also home to the Water and Energy Sustainable Technology Center, which focuses on developing resilient water use technologies. The center researches membrane processes, desalination, energy recovery from water and wastewater processes, and water-efficient technologies.

At the city level, Tucson Water has implemented the One Water 2100 Plan, a long-term sustainability strategy aimed at securing a reliable water supply through the end of the century.

Interior Secretary's Warning

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced he would hand down a decision this month on the first of two crucial issues his office is confronting regarding the Colorado River: how to allocate water supplies among users over the next 20 years to replace the existing 2007 agreement.

We're in a super severe situation. For us to have a functioning, operating plan for 2026, decisions are going to have to be made this month, Burgum said. Under the current course we're heading on, it's unlikely there will be an agreement with the seven basin states.

Burgum warned that no one will be satisfied with his department's decision.

We'll be balancing water rights, power generation and water supply, Burgum said. We're positive about one thing — no one will be satisfied.

Legal Action Looming

CAP and state water managers have already taken legal action to protect Arizona's water supplies. The state has retained the high-powered law firm Sullivan & Cromwell to represent its position in a potential court battle.

Nolie Templeton, a senior policy analyst with CAP, said the dry conditions are "very concerning." She explained that low inflows could put Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, "frighteningly close" to the level at which it can no longer generate hydroelectric power.

The waters of the Colorado River are foundational to the economy and people of Central and Southern Arizona, supporting 6 million Arizonans, many tribal communities, a thriving advanced microchip manufacturing industry, and critical mineral and agricultural production, the letter to Burgum stated. The proposal would affect the state's agriculture sector while also driving up groundwater usage and utility rates.

What Comes Next

The Interior Department must release water from upstream reservoirs to help prevent a calamity at Glen Canyon Dam, where insufficient water could halt hydroelectric power generation for seven Western states. But the larger question remains: how to allocate river water supplies among users over the next 20 years.

Arizona's negotiators say the federal government's proposed allocations are unworkable. The state has been attempting to strike a balance between pragmatic water solutions and urgent messaging to the public and federal government as the state's Colorado River position remains precarious.

As negotiations continue, the pressure mounts on all parties to find a sustainable solution before mandatory cuts become reality. The outcome could reshape Arizona's economy, agriculture, and energy production for decades to come.

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Sources:

• "Dismal," "depressing" and "seriously dry": Low snow threatens Colorado River water supply | KJZZ | https://www.kjzz.org/science/2026-04-07/dismal-depressing-and-seriously-dry-low-snow-threatens-colorado-river-water-supply

• Arizona business and political leaders need to work together on Colorado River messaging, advocates say | Arizona Capitol Times | https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/04/07/arizona-business-and-political-leaders-need-to-work-together-on-colorado-river-messaging-advocates-say/

• Interior secretary says "nobody will be happy" with Colorado River decision | Tucson.com | https://tucson.com/news/local/environment/article_bbdac218-c7c8-4574-87d6-2b6bcfa6d94b.html

• Tucson takes action as feds threaten Colorado River cuts | Tucson Spotlight | https://www.tucsonspotlight.org/tucson-takes-action-as-feds-threaten-colorado-river-cuts/