Interior Secretary Doug Burgum Proposes 77% Water Cut for Arizona As Colorado River Crisis Deepens

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced this week that the federal government plans to slash Arizona's Colorado River water supply by more than 77 percent as negotiations among the seven basin states collapse amid record-low snowpack and dwindling reservoir levels.

Speaking at a roundtable in the Tucson area on Monday, Burgum pledged to hand down a decision this month on how the Bureau of Reclamation will manage upstream reservoirs in the four Upper Colorado River Basin states. His decision will determine how much water flows from Glen Canyon Dam to maintain electricity generation serving seven Western states.

"We were balancing water rights, power generation and water supply," Burgum said. "No one will be satisfied."

The proposed cuts stem from Arizona's junior priority status among the seven states sharing the river. Under the principle of "first in time, first in line" that has governed Colorado River water rights since 1922, Arizona faces the steepest reductions. The federal government's Draft Environmental Impact Statement proposed a 77.4 percent cut to Arizona's water supply, a 16.67 percent cut to Mexico's, and a 5.93 percent decrease for Nevada. The other five states would not be affected.

The Proposal Would Hit Central Arizona Project and State Economy

The proposed cut targets the Central Arizona Project, a 336-mile system that delivers Colorado River water to central and southern Arizona. On March 2, CAP along with counties and water companies across the state sent a letter to Burgum asking the federal government to reconsider the proposal.

"The waters of the Colorado River are foundational to the economy and people of Central and Southern Arizona, supporting 6 million Arizonans, many tribal communities, a thriving advanced microchip manufacturing industry, and critical mineral and agricultural production," the letter said.

The proposal would drive up groundwater usage and utility rates while threatening to tear apart a generation of careful water management. "The (Draft Environmental Impact Statement) alternatives threaten to tear apart a generation of careful water management and topple the architecture supporting Arizona's economy which is home to the heart of the American semi-conductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure industries," the letter stated.

Snowpack at Record Lows

The situation has worsened as the snowpack in Upper River Basin states such as Utah and Colorado has reached record low levels. Last week, the federal Colorado Basin River Forecast Center lowered its forecast for April to July flows of Colorado River water into Lake Powell for the fourth straight month.

This time, the center is predicting 22 percent of normal runoff from the mountain snows into the river and its tributaries, one of the lowest totals since Lake Powell was formed by Glen Canyon Dam's construction in the 1960s, and down from a 36 percent of normal runoff forecast a month ago.

Burgum's comments came during a roundtable hosted by U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani, a Republican whose district encompasses much of Southern Arizona. The event drew several dozen participants including public lands industry leaders and University of Arizona President Suresh Garimella.

State and Federal Negotiations Stalled

The seven states have been negotiating new water allocations after the 2007 Interim Guidelines for managing Lake Mead and Lake Powell are set to expire this year. The federal government intervened in early 2026 after the states missed the November 2025 negotiation deadline.

During a Las Vegas Valley visit on Tuesday, Burgum said the federal government will continue pushing for a possible deal before the current 20-year-old agreement expires in the coming months. "As talks have reached a stalemate, Burgum said states will need to make concessions."

Local Institutions Already Adapting

While state and federal officials negotiate, local institutions are already working to reduce their dependence on Colorado River water. The University of Arizona campus relies primarily on reclaimed water through an internal distribution system, which reduces the need to purchase potable water for landscaping.

"UA has long been a leader in sustainable irrigation practices, including purchasing smart irrigation controllers decades ago," said UA spokesman Mitch Zak.

The university is home to the Water and Energy Sustainable Technology Center, known as WEST. Andrea Achilli, the center's deputy director, said the center's primary goal is to ensure a sustainable water supply while protecting and promoting human and environmental health.

"The scope is to essentially increase national water security and resilience for water use," Achilli said. "The core is to develop more resilient water use technologies that can enable more security for water sources."

At the city level, Tucson Water has the One Water 2100 Plan, a long-term sustainability strategy aimed at securing a reliable water supply through the end of the century.

What Comes Next

Burgum will have to decide soon on an even bigger and more divisive issue: how to allocate river water supplies among users over the next 20 years, to replace an existing agreement among them on how the water is divvied up.

"We can't have all these reservoirs and no operating plan. We have to tell them to do something that no one will like," Burgum said. "We're in a super severe situation. For us to have a functioning, operating plan for 2026, decisions are going to have to be made this month."

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Sources

• "Interior secretary says 'nobody will be happy' with Colorado River decision" - Tucson.com - https://tucson.com/news/local/environment/article_bbdac218-c7c8-4574-87d6-2b6bcfa6d94b.html
• "'Everybody will be unhappy with it': Interior Secretary Burgum calls on states to make concessions for Colorado River deal" - Arizona Daily Sun - https://azdailysun.com/news/state-and-regional/everybody-will-be-unhappy-with-it-interior-secretary-burgum-calls-on-states-to-make-concessions/article_6d9134b9-9339-44e3-a506-030ccd4a5dde.html
• "Tucson takes action as feds threaten Colorado River cuts" - Tucson Spotlight - https://tucsonspotlight.org/tucson-takes-action-as-feds-threaten-colorado-river-cuts/