Mesa Families Could Lose School Choice Under Proposed Arizona ESA Restrictions, Report Finds

A new report released Monday warns that a proposed ballot measure could strip school choice from more than 20,000 Arizona families currently using Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, including thousands in Mesa.

The Common Sense Institute released the first report in its 2026 Ballot Guide series, analyzing the proposed Protect Education Act and its potential impacts on Arizona families, school choice, and K-12 funding.

The Numbers Behind the Proposal

The report finds the proposal's income cap would immediately remove eligibility for approximately 20,300 current universal ESA families and could ultimately exclude more than half of Arizona families with school-aged children over time.

Key findings from the report:

• Approximately 24% of current ESA users have household incomes above the proposed $150,000 threshold
• Approximately 400,000 Arizona school-aged children could be excluded from ever participating in universal ESA based on family income
• By 2045, more than 52% of Arizona families with school-aged children could become income-excluded as incomes outpace the cap adjustment
• The average universal ESA award is approximately $7,700, compared to nearly $15,000 per public-school student

The Fiscal Impact

The Common Sense Institute estimates that moving 20,000 universal ESA students back into district classrooms would increase taxpayer costs by approximately $115 million annually.

The report also addresses claims about ESA program oversight. Arizona Department of Education audit data found approximately 1.9% of sampled ESA spending was classified as "unallowable," while 0.3% was identified as "egregious."

A survey of participating private schools found 84% already use standardized academic testing, and roughly two-thirds report accreditation by a recognized accrediting body.

What the Report Says About Arizona's Schools

The report challenged the narrative that universal ESA caused public school enrollment declines. It found that Arizona district enrollment has been declining since 2008, while charter, private, homeschool, and other nontraditional education options expanded.

District schools lost approximately 50,000 students during 2021-2022, before universal ESA eligibility was enacted.

"Arizona's K-12 system has been evolving for more than a decade as enrollment patterns, family preferences, and educational models continue to diversify," said Glenn Farley, Director of Policy and Research at Common Sense Institute.

"This analysis finds the proposed Act would not simply adjust ESA eligibility requirements, but could significantly reshape access to nontraditional education options over time."

Farley added that a growing number of families are seeking educational choices that better meet their children's needs. He noted that Arizona was one of the first states to broadly expand Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, and a growing number of states have since adopted similar programs.

What It Means for Mesa

Mesa is one of Arizona's largest school districts and home to thousands of families who have enrolled in the ESA program since universal eligibility took effect. If the Protect Education Act passes, families with household incomes above $150,000 would lose access to ESA funding.

The proposal would also add new operational requirements for participating schools, according to the report.

The Protect Education Act is expected to appear on the November ballot if it qualifies for placement.

"If approved by Arizona voters, the proposal could significantly narrow access to options many Arizona families have increasingly turned to as part of the state's changing education landscape," Farley said.