New Poll Shows Gov. Katie Hobbs Leading Both GOP Governor Candidates in Arizona
Marcus Whitfield
The Numbers Behind the Race
A new poll from Noble Predictive Insights shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holding a general election advantage over both Republican candidates in Arizona's 2026 governor's race.
In a head-to-head matchup, Hobbs leads Congressman Andy Biggs by 4 points, 41% to 37%. Her margin widens to 7 points against Congressman David Schweikert, 42% to 35%.
Independent candidate Hugh Lytle sits at 5%, drawing roughly equal support from both parties.
Biggs Dominates the GOP Primary
The Republican primary field shows a clear frontrunner. Biggs holds 48% support among GOP voters. Schweikert trails at 18%.
A third of Republican voters remain undecided, leaving room for movement before the July 21 primary.
"...no one knows who the heck Hugh Lytle is. He's going to have to spend millions and millions of dollars just for people to know who he is, let alone say, 'Hey, why are they voting for him?'" Mike Noble, the pollster behind the survey, said regarding Lytle's position on the ballot.
Favorability and Awareness
Every candidate in the race holds a net positive favorability rating:
- Katie Hobbs: plus 9
- Andy Biggs: plus 5
- David Schweikert: plus 2
- Hugh Lytle: plus 2
Nearly half of all voters, 48%, say they do not know who Lytle is.
Key Dates Ahead of the Primary
Voters in Arizona face several deadlines as the 2026 midterm election season accelerates:
- June 6: Deadline for overseas voter registration
- June 22: General voter registration deadline
- June 24: Early ballots go out
- July 21: Primary election
Voters registered as independent or with no party designation must request a partisan ballot to participate in either primary. They will not receive one automatically, according to the poll report.
The poll was reported on-air by ABC15 and converted to digital with editorial verification for fairness and accuracy.