Schweikert Falls Behind Biggs in Arizona GOP Governor Primary as New Poll Widens Gap

Noble Predictive Insights Poll Shows Biggs Extending Lead Over Schweikert

A new poll released Monday shows Republican U.S. Rep. David Schweikert falling further behind his primary opponent, fellow GOP Congressman Andy Biggs, in the race for Arizona governor.

Noble Predictive Insights conducted an opt-in online survey that showed Biggs has increased his lead by 30 points over Schweikert.

Schweikert disputed the external polling numbers. He said his own internal surveys show a much tighter race.

"In ours, the gap is quite narrow," Schweikert said. "But what's shocking to us and to the other pollsters, if you dig into the numbers, is almost half the Republican primary voters really have not even tuned into the race yet."

The poll was released less than four months before Arizona's primary election. Schweikert's campaign is arguing that a significant portion of Republican primary voters have not yet paid attention to the governor's race.

Schweikert Claims He Is the Only Republican Who Can Defeat Hobbs

Schweikert also made a broader claim about the general election. He said he is the only Republican candidate who can beat incumbent Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs in November.

That assertion puts Schweikert at odds with Biggs, who has also been campaigning heavily to position himself as the strongest candidate against Hobbs.

A separate poll from Noble Predictive Insights showed Hobbs holding a general election advantage over both Republican candidates. That poll was released on the same day and has already been reported.

What It Means for Surprise and the West Valley

Surprise and the broader West Valley have historically leaned Republican in primary elections. The composition of the GOP primary electorate in Maricopa County's western suburbs could shape which candidate emerges as the nominee.

Schweikert represents Arizona's 9th Congressional District, which covers parts of the West Valley. Biggs represents the 8th Congressional District, which covers the eastern and southwestern parts of the state.

Both candidates are vying for the support of Republican voters across Arizona. The next few months of primary campaigning will determine whether the external polling or the internal polling proves more accurate.

The Arizona primary election is scheduled for July 2026.