Tempe: New Poll Shows Hobbs Holds 31-Point Latino Lead Over Biggs in Arizona Governor Race
Marcus Whitfield
Latino Voters Could Decide Arizona's Top Race
A new poll of Arizona Latino voters shows Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs holding a commanding lead over Republican Andy Biggs as the two prepare to face off in November.
The survey by UnidosUS found that 52% of Arizona Latinos would vote for Hobbs. Only 21% said they would pick Biggs. That is a 31 percentage point advantage for the incumbent governor.
The poll matters because Latino voters have become an increasingly decisive force in Arizona elections. An increase in Latino support helped Donald Trump win the state in 2024. But the new data suggests that dynamic could shift again this year.
"The poll shows that 40% of Hispanic voters have joined the electorate in the last four years. 35% in Arizona," said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president at UnidosUS.
Where the Race Is Decided
University of Texas professor Daron Shaw worked on the survey of hundreds of Arizonans. He said the action in the governor race is not among Latino voters. It is among independents and Republicans who have not yet picked a candidate.
"The indecision on the part of either the independents, or Republican, or Republican-leaning constituencies is where a lot of the action is right now," Shaw said.
Biggs is currently projected to be the Republican nominee to challenge Hobbs in November.
The poll also found that 19% of Arizona Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 say they would not do it again.
What Latino Voters Care About
The top issues for Arizona Latino voters this election year are cost of living, housing, and immigration.
Tempe has one of the largest Latino populations in the Phoenix metropolitan area. The city is home to Arizona State University and a growing number of young families. State policy decisions on housing, education, and immigration directly affect Tempe residents.
Hobbs and Biggs have already begun trading attacks ahead of the general election. The governor's race is heating up even before the GOP primary is officially over.
The poll was conducted by UnidosUS, a national advocacy organization for Latino communities. Shaw, a political scientist at the University of Texas, helped design and analyze the survey.